Guotai Junan Ren Zeping in the short term, the downward trend of interest rates is more difficult-avbox

Guotai Junan Ren Zeping: short term interest rates down difficult [Zeping macro] to the inventory of steady growth, to leverage the anti risk, interest rates down harder — Comment on new loans and bank outsourcing and leverage special meeting source: WeChat public number Zeping macro text: Ren Zeping, Zhang Qingchang, king of the macro solution Yunliang events: in February 2nd, the central bank and the CBRC adjustment policies of individual housing loans, in the implementation of the restriction measures in the city, the first mortgage on the principle of the minimum down payment ratio of 25%, down 5 percentage points over two suites floating; the minimum down payment ratio adjusted to not less than 30%. According to Sina reported, recently, the central bank held a meeting, the five major participants, at the meeting to focus on outsourcing situation and leverage situation. Comments: 1) core view: first payment policy is relaxed, intended to inventory stable economy, moderate expansion of the total demand, in order to cooperate with the supply side reform, rather than excessive stimulation. As usual, the central bank will take measures to control the leverage ratio of outsourcing and structured products after the briefing. In the short term, it may cause market volatility; in the medium term, the control committee will increase the scale of the bank’s own interest rate debt allocation; in the long run, it will help to prevent liquidity risk and reduce systemic risk. Short term interest rate downside is more difficult, and the supply side reform is mainly coordinated with the supply side. 2) down payment policy is intended to inventory stable economy, moderate expansion of total demand, the actual effect to be observed. In January 26th, general secretary Xi Jinping at the Twelfth Meeting of the central financial and economic leading group put forward that, in the supply side structural reform, at the same time, we should expand the total demand moderately. Real estate is the mother of the cycle, in 2014, China’s real estate long cycle inflection point appears, almost at the same time, the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase. At present, the real estate is expected to be more pessimistic, the down payment policy relaxed, intended to moderate expansion of aggregate demand and boost market confidence. But it should be noted that due to changes in population structure, the real estate high investment era has ended forever, expect to stimulate the real estate economic recovery will be unrealistic. 3) to win time for reform and to enlarge the total demand to coordinate the reform of supply side. Supply side reform in the long term will help the economy to form a sustainable growth momentum, but in the short term will bring "labor pains"". In a growth phase shift, smooth economic reasons, should also grasp the supply side and demand side, but should distinguish between primary and secondary, to supply side reforms, moderate expansion of aggregate demand should be positioned with the supply side reforms, avoid excessive stimulation, so as to avoid the more distorted economic structure. 4) air blowing signal is clear, bond market deleveraging. The bank on the financial market in the near future, self trust funds management business concern, because the practical operation of the process of business credit risk and leverage its preference is often amplified, and huge potential risks, according to reports, outsourcing special understanding of the central bank will release the signal, is very obvious. In addition, the recent central bank on leveraged bond products early research completed, the banking system to reduce product leverage, release the market risk signals are also out. Judging from all the information, the Spring Festival after the outer scale and stock bond structured products leverage limits may become more and more severe. In the short run, it may lead to market fluctuations

国泰君安任泽平:短期内利率下行难度加大   【泽平宏观】去库存稳增长,去杠杆防风险,利率下行难度加大――点评房贷新政和央行委外及杠杆专题会议   来源:微信公众号泽平宏观   文:国君宏观任泽平、张庆昌、解运亮   事件:2月2日,央行、银监会调整个人住房贷款政策,在不实施“限购”措施的城市,首套房贷原则上最低首付款比例为25%,各地可向下浮动5个百分点;二套房最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。据新浪网报道,近日央行召开会议,五大行参会,会上着重了解了委外情况以及杠杆情况。   点评:   1)核心观点:首付政策放松意在去库存稳经济适度扩大总需求,以配合供给侧改革为主,而非过度刺激。按照惯例,吹风会后央行会采取措施,控制委外和结构化产品杠杆比例。短期看,可能会引起市场波动;中期,控制委外会加大银行自己配置利率债的规模;长期有利于防范流动性风险和降低系统性风险。短期利率下行难度加大,货政以配合供给侧改革为主。   2)首付政策放松意在去库存稳经济,适度扩大总需求,实际效果待观察。1月26日,习近平总书记在中央财经领导小组第十二次会议上提出,在供给侧结构性改革的同时要适度扩大总需求。房地产是周期之母,2014年我国房地产长周期拐点出现,几乎与此同时,经济下行压力不断加大。目前房地产预期较为悲观,本次首付政策放松,意在适度扩大总需求并提振市场信心。但需要注意的是,由于人口结构发生变化,房地产高投资时代已经永远地落幕,指望刺激房地产实现经济复苏将是不切实际的。   3)为改革赢得时间,适度扩大总需求以配合供给侧改革为主。供给侧改革长期内有助于经济形成可持续增长动力,但短期内会带来“阵痛”。在增速换挡期,为平滑经济起见,供给侧和需求侧应同时抓,但应分清主次,以供给侧改革为主,适度扩大总需求应定位于配合供给侧改革,坚决避免过度刺激,以免造成经济结构更大扭曲。   4)吹风会信号明确,债市去杠杆。市场近期银行对理财、自营资金的委托管理业务高度关注,由于实操过程中委外业务杠杆和信用风险偏好常被放大,因而潜藏巨大风险,据新浪网报道,央行会上专门了解委外情况,释放的信号十分明显。此外,近期央行对杠杆型债券产品前期调研完毕,银监体系降低产品杠杆、释放市场风险的信号也都出来了。从所有的信息判断,春节后委外规模和股债结构化产品杠杆比例的限制可能会越来越严。短期看,可能会引起市场波动;中期,控制委外会加大银行自己配置利率债的规模;长期有利于防范流动性风险和降低系统性风险。   5)短期内,利率下行难度加大,货政以配合供给侧改革为主,并兼顾汇率。目前,市场预期利率不断下行,但11月6日央行《货币政策执行报告》已强调“继续实施稳健的货币政策”和“不能过度放水、妨碍市场的有效出清”。新浪网报道称,央行会上更是明确点出市场预期利率不断下行可能是有问题的。种种迹象表明央行并不支持货币政策持续宽松。目前来看,新一届中央领导集体展现了推动改革的勇气和决心,货政以配合供给侧改革为主。另外,在稳汇率的情况下,降息的难度也越来越大。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: